The Shape of Peace for Ukraine.

This is a sketch of what a reasonable peace deal might look like, a far cry from what Donald John Trump has offered so far, which is completely unworkable.

Start with Crimea. It is one of the biggest sticking points for both sides. In a reasonable deal, Ukraine would agree to lease the port, a buffer zone, and the land for the connecting bridge for a period of 50 years for a to-be-agreed-upon sum. A negotiation for renewal, if desired, shall commence no later than the 40th year of the lease. In exchange for this major concession, the Russian Federation would agree to pull out of the majority of occupied territory to the preceding land borders, and both sides would agree to set up a demilitarized buffer on either side of those borders.

Next is security guarantees for Ukraine. This is the messier piece, as it requires buy-in and negotiation with one or several guarantor-parties. But the main option would be that a future violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty would allow for NATO to begin admittance discussions within 180 days, along with some European military outposts set in Ukraine which would be recognized as NATO-affiliates in the event they came under attack. The only reasonable way for Ukraine to sign a peace deal is if there is something to stop the Russian Federation from simply coming back in. And the only way that happens is if there’s a threat of a bigger war.

The other security guarantee comes in the form of the sanctions. With a hair-trigger, they will be reintroduced upon credible evidence of future aggression by the Russian Federation. In the meantime they will be replaced by a tax of 10% of all business between the Russian Federation and the European Union for a period of at least a decade, which will be used to pay for both the security arrangements and for a nest-egg to bolster Ukraine’s military funding and rebuilding costs.

Finally, the Russian Federation will pay some direct reparations, to-be-negotiated, for rebuilding, and both sides will submit and negotiate settlements for exchange of prisoners and other issues arising from the conflict.

The proposal by the United States is one-sided and does not recognize the basic realities of the conflict, does not meet the needs to acquire peace. Crimea must remain in Ukraine’s hands, but the Russian Federation will not concede it without retaining access to that port, so it must be a compromise. A guarantee for Ukraine against future aggression is similarly a necessity, that without which there can be no peace. The Russian Federation opposes Ukraine joining NATO, but any security guarantee must be at least as strong as if it did—the threat of a larger war is the only impediment that can reasonably deter the Russian Federation from returning to arms. And there must be payments to the Ukrainians for they have borne the brunt of harm in this war, and so the Russian Federation should pay—not from its coffers, but as a tax on future business activity.

One only hopes the parties can come to this kind of real agreement, and that the Russian Federation can go back home, and reform its politics to become a nation worthy of its name.