Think of the Children, GOP.

The future is bleak for the GOP. They have a generation of kids doing active shooter drills. They have a generation of kids with a racist president. They have a generation of kids watching as they deny science and block concerted action against climate change. They have a generation of kids seeing other kids in cages, while they argue they shouldn’t have toothbrushes. They have a generation of kids whose parents worry about their healthcare, whether they can afford insulin, whether a crazy lawsuit (or a Senate vote without Senator McCain) will tump the apple cart.

The future of the GOP will depend upon outright abjuration of the current party, which will take wide swaths of policy (but not all) with it. It’s clear enough that if you wanted to turn off a whole generation to your party forever, you couldn’t build a better party to do it than today’s Republicans.

None of which is much consolation to the kids who have to grow up listening to a racist president, or who will have to endure a worse climate scenario than they would if we had responsible conservatives in the US. They will be more likely to repeal the 2nd amendment than to tweak it or be satisfied with gun safety laws, which isn’t the best outcome.

In general, having two (or more, but at least two) useful parties is always healthy. It keeps the majority party responsible, and it keeps the minority party relevant enough to temper the worst instincts of the majority. But the Republicans, railing against socialism, are pushing for a future where they are powerless to stop the very socialism they fearmonger about. They are, obstruction by obstruction, denial by denial, racist tweet by racist tweet, ceding the future to the Democratic party.

Even the children who will inevitably dislike the Democrats will be more likely to splinter off into the Libertarians or Greens or some new third parties, which will never have enough strength to respond. The long-term strategy of the Republicans is to make sure they never need a long-term strategy. Poisoning a whole generation against them is a safe bet. They won’t need to solve any problems circa 2050, because they will have dwindled into irrelevancy.

It doesn’t have to be this way. There is the idiocy about demographics as destiny, that California being a “blue state” is caused by who lives there rather than the policies that are put forward. There’s all this woe that Americans don’t fuck enough, aren’t having kids. But the Republicans aren’t putting forward policies to change that (and I don’t mean some Handmaid’s Tale policies, either).

How many damned autopsies from elections would they need before they actually embrace change? They are the victims of campaign funding capture that is detrimental to their own future. The check writers want to see not electoral performance but stump performance, dictating a bad platform that calls for gag rules and walls and tax cuts and little in the way of compassionate or reasonable policy.

The modern conservatives will have to break that mold. They should caucus with the Democrats long enough to see it smashed. To get real campaign finance reform, to get real gerrymandering reform, to get real voting reform. To tune-up the system in a way that makes elections about ideas again, and then they can begin to offer conservative shades of policy instead of Day-Glo murals of doom.

What Trump Ought to have Said

Disclaimer: I didn’t actually listen to or read what Trump said about racism, xenophobia, (apparently not guns), video games, mental illness, etc. in the wake of the terrorist attack in El Paso, Texas, or the other shooting (as yet no clear motive) in Dayton, Ohio. I did pick up a few bits of what he said through hearsay and headlines, but I didn’t read any articles specifically about his speech.

I tried to roughly replicate the style and tone of the president, but not so much the content. Instead I wrote what I think he ought to have said, if he were honest, accepting the limitations, in something like the way he might have said it.


My fellow Americans and guests in our nation, I rise today to speak to you about one of the dangers of our time. The danger of violent hatred, which I am more responsible for than most. I own it. I did it to get elected. I did it because there’s a whole media industry built up around it, which made it easy to join in and win the affection of the millions who buy into that tripe. I followed in the sick tradition of George Wallace, who started out his political career moderate, but found his meal ticket in being a race-baiting schmuck with no shame. It’s a time-tested strategy, and it’s not like I’m a particularly creative guy.

The fact is, yes, I, Donald J. Trump, helped continue this horror. I didn’t mean to. It bothers me. I can’t stop, though, for a variety of reasons. I won’t stop. It’s just the way things are going to be, see? We all have our roles to play, and I’m stuck playing this racist gasbag you see before you.

But the problem has never been a lack of losers to try to ride the wave of hate to bigger paychecks. Oh, no. We’re a dime a dozen. The problem is that there are so many who so readily buy in to the racism. You’d think it’d be harder, but people are easy to swindle if you push the right buttons. Some use religion, others use race.

There are people who live lackluster existences, and they need something to make their brains work. Their vapid sitcoms-and-fast-food existence is so meaningless they might as well not exist. But you can wake them up if you plug them into racism. Suddenly things make sense. The juices flow. It’s a lump of clay, ready to mold into any problem they encounter.

It’s not just poor people, either. There are plenty of lucky people who found their way to riches but never had to develop much understanding for the world. You’re looking at one right now, in fact. We skate through life by the law of averages, by the fact we can be useful to others who are happy enough to cover for our foibles if it enriches them.

It’s so easy. Whatever your problem, you can always link it back to someone else, and say it was race. But it’s usually some other problem entirely unconnected to race, like lack of effective social assistance. The politicians have messed up the safety net and the people have got no basic security in society while I cut taxes for the rich.

Point is, sitting ducks, all these people left behind by a system that has no empathy any longer. The forgotten man. Remember him? The one I forgot about the day I was elected? He’s still forgotten, and he still wants to be remembered. He wants to be heard. I’m not listening to him, but maybe racists in some chat room or some forum are.

Most of them have problems with violence. The domestic violence problem. They don’t know how to cope. They get frustrated and snap. They have this lingering doubt in their heads. Even on the good days. They see the shadows in a fully lit room. And then any small thing confirms their doubt, and they’re ready to go full rage. Most of them learned it from their home life growing up. But we can’t fix physical healthcare, so any talk about mental healthcare is pretty much a joke, right?

And the guns. Let’s talk about the guns. The Republican party—Democrats, too, I guess—have made it a mission to prevent Iran from having the bomb. They didn’t set up a red flag law. They didn’t say, “Let Iran get the bomb, then we’ll go take it away after three days if they don’t appeal a court order.” They said: “No bomb for Iran.”

I mean, it’s really that simple with the guns isn’t it? The high-powered rifles. Or no guns if they don’t pass a check. Right? The red flag thing, maybe it works, but maybe gun owners should have a little bit of a check before. No loopholes, none of that. A check, okay? Are you able to be responsible? I mean, it’s not like I can give the name of every would-be gun owner to the media and let them run each name down like I can with my nominees.

And some guns, we just can’t do it. Some of them, with the hundreds of rounds in a magazine, and they might as well be automatic, right? No good. You know how we do with explosives? We don’t mess around with that. Nobody’s just walking around with explosives. No one is open carrying explosives. People go to prison just for mistakes in paperwork with explosives.

And I know, you have these places with so much violence, systemic they call it. In the cities. Cyclical, tit-for-tat violence. And it’s handguns. And most of those places, the gun laws, someone is buying guns and bringing them in. But if you look, those places need more than just gun laws. They do need gun laws, of course. Violence only makes everything harder. But they need—when you have a broken situation, you have these buildings that make people sick. Sick building syndrome. You have to do a major renovation. You can’t just go in and put a few plants in there. You have to tear out and rebuild and revitalize. Or sometimes, the land itself. They built housing on top of polluted places that used to pollute so much you’d have to change your shirt at mid-day because it would change color. That’s what the places, these places where children live. I mean, little ones that play peek-a-boo, all of that, they live in places where there’s systemic violence and deterioration. We have to do better. Remember “No Child Left Behind?” For school, but they left them behind in their neighborhoods and in all these other ways, including healthcare. Left them behind. It can’t be fixed just by getting rid of the guns—guns that people are bringing in from across state lines—but we do have to get rid of the guns. Where they’re paying another state’s sales tax to bring guns in where they shouldn’t. Bet those folks would like to build a big, beautiful wall to keep the guns out. But it wouldn’t work, so we have to try something else.

But the racism, it’s got to end, folks. It’s so stupid. I can’t end it. I’m part of it. If I weren’t racist, my base might actually look at what I am. George Wallace’s voters used to say “He tells it like it is,” too, you know. The only difference was he ran as a Democrat by the time that most Democrats wanted to go straight. He won Florida and it scared the Democrats so bad they nominated George McGovern, who got creamed by President Nixon.

That was over 40 years ago, but the modern Republicans just scooped me into their arms. Right into their bosom, folks. They’ll defend me, no matter what stupid thing I do. But I can’t stop the racism. Even if I tried, I can’t. I can’t stop the racism for the same reason the Republicans go along with every blunder I make. There’s no blueprint. I’m not that creative. And neither are they.

I guess maybe the only way to stop the racism is to spread the wealth, not just money but knowledge and caring, those are forms of wealth too, and to integrate society. If everyone’s got neighbors who are different, being different is normal. If everyone’s got security in society, they know they aren’t going to be starving and homeless because they’re five minutes late—if the elevators have emergency brakes to prevent these people, so vulnerable, so fragile, from suddenly plunging to their dooms. . . .

That’s how you stop the racism. The guns thing? Do like we do with Iran, folks. Like we do with explosives. Stop selling them so easily. Stop selling the worst of them entirely, maybe. Maybe. But at least do backgrounds. Have to at least check. If someone hunts, great, but they have to do it responsibly. People with guns have to do it responsibly. It’s really common sense is what it is.


Something like that, anyway.

Most folks want to see something done about these acts of terror. They don’t want to stop a hunter from being able to help keep the deer population in check. They don’t want to stop people who enjoy the hobby side of guns, or the history side. But they don’t want these shootings to continue like they have done for decades at this point.

Some politicians, mostly Republicans, bring up video games. I play video games and have done for most of my life. If I honestly thought that undergoing a background check or getting a license or such to play them would make anyone even a little safer, I’d be more than happy to. If the Republicans want to pass a law to that effect, I’ll gladly do so. I don’t think video games have anything to do with these violent assholes. It’s also noteworthy that as recent as 2013 the US Army published a video game called America’s Army, which had a combat component (i.e., violence). I don’t recall any Republicans criticizing that effort.

Other solutions outside of guns include mental healthcare. That means we would need universal coverage, which, again, Republicans have opposed. If they don’t think it’s worth it, they should say so. I think it’s worth it even setting the gun violence aside, for the peace of mind and the general welfare that people shouldn’t suffer needlessly.

On the side of guns, most people will accept an incremental approach. Increased background check coverage, for example. Do that. If it’s not enough, we will do more later. But to keep doing nothing, to sit on our hands, is not enough. We will either have a government that will work to improve our society or we will surely cease to have government at all. I favor the former, hands down.

2020 Democratic Debates 2.1 and 2.2

What are the issues? What’s all the debate about?

Climate Change

How long do we have to do something? How to reduce our carbon pollution? Do we invest in R&D, focusing on carbon capture, farm-based sequestration, carbon tax, more EV charging stations? All of the above? That’s the debate.

The main reason this is so dire is that the Republicans generally refuse to work on any real policy (and Trump uses executive orders and rulemaking to attack our home, earth). One apparent bright spot came in the Senate this past week when the Committee on Environment and Public Works unanimously moved on a bill that would direct $10 billion toward emission reduction and infrastructure built to mitigate damage from a harsher climate. But it’s a tiny step compared to the major needs.

Healthcare

To have a Medicare-for-all system or improve on the Affordable Care Act? Or will they end up the same thing—a public option slipping into single payer? That’s the debate.

Similar to climate, the Republican side is the lawsuit supported by Republican AGs and the Trump Department of Justice to kill the Affordable Care Act entirely. They have no plan for the millions who would be affected. It would be a major mess, with sick people thrown to the wolves, job losses that might tank the economy—the equivalent of dropping a legal bomb. They have no policy to replace it. Worse, the ACA is relatively conservative in its approach, so any replacement would likely be more liberal and less likely to pass the Senate at a time when immediate action would be needed to restore confidence and save lives.

The Republican lawsuit comes after years of trying to revoke the ACA without ever putting forward even a skeleton policy of what could replace it.

Immigration

To decriminalize border crossings or not? Should any future Trump-style president be able to use the mere fact of crossing as an excuse to separate families? If the law remains criminal, rather than a civil process, that proposition remains. That’s the debate.

(There’s also a lot of media-imposed strife on whether undocumented immigrants deserve to have access to healthcare, because. . . I don’t really understand the issue. They’re humans. Every human needs healthcare at some point. I think some are conflating access with unpaid access, which isn’t really the issue.

I understand part of the media’s MO is to show contrast, but if they can’t effectively articulate the issue, maybe they should do their job first. Once they have explained what the issue is, they can freely show contrast on it.)

The Republicans are much more divided, with a minority constantly eager to blow up any compromise between the parties—it’s been that way for over a decade at this point. Any deal is deemed by the Freedom Caucus types as a bad deal. But, as with the environment and healthcare, Trump is using executive orders and rulemaking to undermine any order or compassion in our immigration system.

Education

Cancel student loans? For everyone or just the lower class? That’s the debate.

On this one I don’t really understand why there isn’t emphasis on increasing the number of colleges and other options to drive prices down. But oh well.

But education also includes the need to integrate primary education. Which is really a need to integrate communities generally, because shuttling kids about rather than having them live in the same neighborhoods with their classmates is pretty nuts.

Once again, Trump and Secretary of Education DeVos are seeking to undermine any useful oversight of our educational system, including giving for-profit institutions carte blanche to reap profits while not providing education.

Impeachment

Would Trump being acquitted in the US Senate help him more than not impeaching him? That’s the debate.

Biden

Is his record from before 2008 more important than his record since? What about 2008-2016? Are those years off-limits because Obama remains popular? Is there redemption for being wrong in the past? How do his mistakes balance against his other votes and acts that remain positive? That’s the debate.

Trump

Vote him out. There is no debate.


In general, the second pair of debates seemed worse than the first in many ways. It might be useful to explain how people choose their candidate.

Let’s go back to 2008, when John McCain lost to Barack Obama. McCain was regarded as a maverick. Come 2012, Mitt Romney was the leader in the race. There were many in the party who kept trying on other candidates, only to find them ill-fitting, and Romney ultimately won the nomination and lost to Obama.

In 2016, similar situation except Jeb! Bush was the leader. Unlike 2012, the folks wanting change latched onto Donald Trump and did not sway.

It works a little bit different for Democrats—different values—but not much:

  1. If there’s an incumbent, a lame duck’s vice president, or a runner-up from the previous cycle, probably go with that or a surrogate for that.
  2. But, if a real, natural leader emerges (think John F. Kennedy), pick that one.
  3. Otherwise, go for something different than last time, unless those alternatives are obvious duds.

For 2020, a #1-style candidate could be Bernie Sanders. There’s some built-in support for #1s. The previous president’s voters, or their own primary voters from the last time around. On the other hand, Joe Biden kind of fits as a #1 with the vice president, having declined to run in 2016. There’s some confusion whether he qualifies, a whole cycle removed.

But if any of the candidates can break away, it will be on the basis of them channeling serious charisma—#2s. A few have had a moment here or there. Bill Clinton was the most charismatic figure of the past 30 years. Ronald Reagan also had good charisma for his time. Kennedy was very charismatic and well-spoken, so much so that it’s still a drinking game to take a shot when a Dem quotes him in a debate. For whatever reason, #2s are fairly rare.

But in 2020, Democrats might not be ready to call it with a #1. There are enough competitors that they can choose alternatives to both Biden and Sanders. There are several people adjacent to each of them, and if any of them show some charisma or other edge to their candidacies, the nomination will be up for grabs.

The other factor to consider is that this field must shrink. As it does so, some of the moderates will fall out, some of the liberals will fall out. The remaining personalities will seem more distinct. The choices clearer. The confusion of trying to deal with so many faces and names will fall away. Those who supported a candidate (donors, voters, and staff) who drops out will shift their support to others. That contraction will be highly clarifying.

How Trumpism Dies.

There are several ways that Trumpism may die. It may die quickly.

The quick death of Trumpism relies upon some major defeat or otherwise loss of momentum or coherency (of the movement; it has never been coherent in policy or otherwise). A crushing 2020 election, or a sudden reversal of support from the business world, an economic fall, or a major and striking policy blunder, domestic or foreign.

Some of the above features exist in fetal form. The weighing strains upon the farming communities, the lack of planning or strategy in foreign matters, the aging growth cycle with many signs of distress, the historic low approval ratings for the party leader. . .

In the quick death scenario, the result hearkens back to the latter days of George W. Bush’s second term, whereupon the public generally was tired of him (even before the economy faltered in earnest). The people are simply not in the mood to entertain the president further, at that point, and they are merely tolerant of his continuance to the end of his term. In this case, a majority have been weary from the get-go, so the death relies on removal of the life-support system that is the Trumpist base.

The fulcrum of Trumpism is Trump the myth or man. There are occasional rumblings of certain factions of his base that he’s not enough of a hard-ass on whatever issue. But they don’t break through any more than the normal, mainstream criticisms. The majority of Trump supporters aren’t supporting a policy. They are merely supporting the face.

Trump is a shiny object, as-seen-on-TV. He’s a catchy tune. Trump is retro, man. He took the old shtick of the bygone politicians of early ages and repackaged them for the modern rube. He’s a hula hoop. Back during that craze, if people found out that those hoops were somehow undermining democracy, do you really think that people who fell for the gimmick would have stopped swinging their torsos? Hell no. You’d have to pry them from their cold, dead hips.

Er. . . But, taken hypothetically that Trumpism dodges all of those factors and there is not a quick death. Trump is reelected for a second bite at the apple that he does not deserve, his first one having already revealed the rot not in the fruit but in the man biting it. The quick death scenario is forestalled but only temporarily. It is still a perfectly plausible event to occur after the postponement.

Indeed, the idea of Trumpism surviving Trump would be contrary to the modern habit of our politics, in which each new quadrennial election brings a revision of one or both major parties. So the question of survival beyond a quick death practically reverses the question. What would it take for Trumpism to survive beyond Trump?

For one, it would require coherence. There would have to be more than a madman’s tweets to sustain it beyond the end of Trump’s tenure. There would have to be adherents who understand that underlying policy and are prepared to defend it, rather than merely covering for their bumbling and cantankerous leader. The weight would have to transfer to a new fulcrum and away from Trump himself. Which makes it all the less likely, as they do not have enough coordination in the organizations at work that can develop such a policy background. And even if they did, Trump would never stand to be anything but the center of gravity of his weird little world.

Short of that transference, there would need be an heir-apparent, some personality akin to Trump that would be available to take up the chicken bucket. Thus far, there are a number of celebrity figures of that dungeon of the political and entertainment world, but none have shown the kind of appeal that Trump has. Which, I admit, gives Trump a certain amount of credit for being better than most at a certain kind of act.

Trump developed his celebrity rich kid status over decades, and he spent all of that credit to get where he is today. Even if he gave another the Trump endorsement, could somehow stand to let the spotlight shift, it’s not clear it would do them much good without the very particular set of attributes that allowed fools to latch onto Trump.

More likely is the kind of schism seen in major religions and countries that do not hold elections—a war of succession. And that is the second way that Trumpism may die. It may happen even if the death is quick, and it may be among the reasons that all the Republicans are sticking to Trump—they want to be ready to pick sides in the aftermath, not losing any positioning.

But schisms are generally reserved for when the resulting factions are the only options. In a Trumpist schism, there would still be some kind of regular Republican party, there would be the Democrats, plus at least two Trumpists trying to claim the chicken buckets mantle. And while Trump could try to rally the followers to one of them, he’s likely to fail. He will no longer be the magic-maker for those fools, and they will have their own opinions of who the new one should be.

(But I really don’t see Trump handing over the chicken bucket. Maybe for the right price, but even then he’s known to do a slack job and to be ready to slander those whom he ostensibly seeks to boost (see several examples in Republican candidates he endorsed in special elections since 2016).)


Trumpism will die, I have no doubt, because it is entirely propped up by Trump. The followers don’t really have any belief beyond liking Trump. There’s nothing to keep it going now that the scam has gotten him paid, and even if he wanted to, he won’t have an endgame other than selling straws and dreck (but maybe he gets to put his name on a tall building in Moscow, Russian Federation).

On the other hand, many of the ideas that Trump employs, which are not Trumpism but rebranded constructs of the Republican party, will not die so swiftly. They will only be solved when all people feel secure, that they will have a place in society and an equal status independent of their employment or other acquired characteristics. That day is yet to be scheduled, but one supposes it will come.

What to Do If Your Leader is Racist?

There are a few different elements to the recent racist display by the president. For one, it was an offense against Massachusetts’ 7th district, Michigan’s 12th district, Minnesota’s 5th district, and New York’s 14th district. The people there chose these representatives, whom the president is free to have political disagreements with, but he’s injuring the basic principles of the nation when he disrespects their constituents.

More importantly, the president is supposed to serve those constituents as much as anyone, so his disrespect is doubled (once for the direct offense and again for the failure as one of their leaders). While some representatives sometimes have reason to be condemned by colleagues or the president, those condemnations must always be careful not to diminish the rightfully owed respect to the constituents.

There are a few noble Republicans who have stood up in objection to the president’s racism. Good on them. Whatever your politics, it’s self-evident that racism has no place.

The racism of the president and the support of those Republicans who backed his statements including Lindsay Graham and Kellyanne Conway are unacceptable. All people have the right to criticize the government. They have the right to prefer different policies, even communism if they choose. While the racists have every right to be racist, racism is stupid and they are stupid for being racist.

The third set of Republicans bothered to condemn the racism but stopped short of calling it racist or pulled out the same both-sides-bullshit that Trump has used before. This is also wrong. It is wrong not to recognize it as racist, because it disconnects the act from the series of acts that constitute the racist legacies of the nation and the world. It is wrong to engage in both-sides because it pretends that the president’s offense was at all justifiable. There is no excuse for his stooping.

The final group of Republicans have stayed silent. This is the group I find most curious. The title of this piece poses a question that I mean. The prospect of confronting a racist president of their own party is not what anyone imagines going into politics. It is surely a difficult position to be in.

As we have seen with the likes of Paul Ryan, once out of office the attitudes of Republicans tend to shift in curious ways. But while in office, for a variety of reasons, they tend to be comfort creatures, closely following what they believe is the politically correct path. I honestly believe most Republicans would jump at the chance to change course, if they knew how and if it weren’t particularly risky to their careers.

Doing the right thing is often risky. It means, for example, that you might end up with a racist president when you share the choice of government with your fellow man and they completely fuck it up. But there is justice in error, that sooner or later the mistakes will cause sufficient motivation to correct course. Which doesn’t answer the question. What do you do?

Quit the party? Go the way of Justin Amash (who also condemned the president’s racism, but had earlier quit over the president’s well-documented instances of obstruction of justice in the Mueller Report)? He’s lonesome, for now. Maybe he’ll be in a position to redecorate the Republican cloakroom when the party finally collapses.

You could seek legislative common ground with Democrats focused on issues of racial and economic justice. Find ways to fight racism one paycheck, one housing bill, one voter registration measure, one educational program at a time.

What else? Ask your colleagues. We know you talk. Talk to the Democrats. Tell them you can’t but you want to do something. I’m sure they’ll be sympathetic, if not a little pissed off you won’t condemn racism. Politics is hard, but the alternative is monarchy, which sucked far worse.


I was reading a ProPublica piece with some first-hand color from a border patrol agent (ProPublica: Ginger Thompson: 16 July 2019: “A Border Patrol Agent Reveals What It’s Really Like to Guard Migrant Children”), and it reminded me a lot of George Orwell’s “Shooting an Elephant” (maybe it was the reference in the piece to Benjamin the donkey in Animal Farm).

I think that’s a lot of what the Republican problem is. While they’re in office, they’ve got that elephant rifle, and there’s the elephant. They do not know better than to shoot the elephant. The lack of imagination, of any other option that they have any idea how it could turn out. They shoot the elephant.